The microblog: 2018.11.17 03:39:02

2018.11.17 03:39:02 (1063622510216802304) from Daniel J. Bernstein:

Dyakonov on quantum computing: "The most optimistic experts estimate it will take 5 to 10 years. More cautious ones predict 20 to 30 years. (Similar predictions have been voiced, by the way, for the last 20 years.)" Really? Which expert said 5-10 in 1998?

2018.11.17 03:54:21 (1063626367215038464) from Daniel J. Bernstein:

Some parts of Dyakonov's article, such as his claim that the precision needed for fault tolerance has "never" been analyzed, are easy to disprove. But his "predictions" claim makes me wonder if anyone has collected a list: expert X in year Y predicted quantum computers in year Z.