The microblog: 2020.03.24 05:30:08

2020.03.24 05:30:08 (1242307687653593088) from Daniel J. Bernstein:

Increased critical care capacity is of course good, but here @StephenKissler also makes the unjustified claim that it's good to take advantage of such capacity by infecting people sooner. Adding the possibility of widespread mid-2021 vaccination to the model would flip the claim.

2020.03.24 05:57:12 (1242314501854130177) from Daniel J. Bernstein:

Even within the paper's focus on distancing, the paper's quantitative conclusions start by assuming that distancing reduces R0 by _at most_ 60%. The paper claims, citing (3), that this is what China's distancing did. (3) does _not_ say this; it says that China did _at least_ 60%.

2020.03.26 06:01:14 (1243040290178387974) from Daniel J. Bernstein:

Today there's another paper that---unlike the paper I've been criticizing---models the possibility of future vaccinations, and models survival as a goal. Unsurprisingly, the new paper concludes that allowing more people to be infected now is a bad idea:


2020.03.23 16:10:46 (1242106522903236609) from "Stephen Kissler (@StephenKissler)", replying to "Stephen Kissler (@StephenKissler)" (1242106521644867584):

In agreement with a recent report, strong, one-time social distancing may suppress critical cases to within capacity, but infection will resurge and overwhelm capacity once measures are lifted.

2020.03.23 16:10:47 (1242106524165685250) from "Stephen Kissler (@StephenKissler)", replying to "Stephen Kissler (@StephenKissler)" (1242106522903236609):

We show that if social distancing is relaxed when transmissibility is heightened in the fall, an intense winter outbreak may occur in the still mostly-susceptible population. This peak may be higher than the ‘no intervention’ case and will overlap with flu season.

2020.03.23 16:10:47 (1242106525902090241) from "Stephen Kissler (@StephenKissler)", replying to "Stephen Kissler (@StephenKissler)" (1242106524165685250):

Intermittent social distancing can prevent critical care capacity from being exceeded but such measures may be required for 12-18 months. Depending on R0 and the amount of seasonality, social distancing must be ‘on’ for as little as 25% but up to 70% of the time.

2020.03.23 16:10:47 (1242106527189778437) from "Stephen Kissler (@StephenKissler)", replying to "Stephen Kissler (@StephenKissler)" (1242106525902090241):

Increased critical care capacity (doubled capacity shown here) is crucial to enable more patients to receive care they need while allowing population immunity to accumulate more rapidly and reducing the overall duration of the epidemic and the total length of social distancing.