The microblog: 2020.03.25 05:53:12

2020.03.25 05:53:12 (1242675882247852033) from Daniel J. Bernstein:

Wrote a Python script to recalculate graphs from new @StephenKissler distancing paper: Almost matches, but what's the paper's initial pulse? The paper's 37.5 safety claim fails for some pulses, never mind other flaws in the model.

2020.03.25 07:22:09 (1242698267801968641) from Daniel J. Bernstein:

The script also has many comments (target audience: Python programmers who enjoy math) to explain (1) SEIR mathematical models of epidemics and (2) specific issues with this paper's model. Script is easily tweaked to model handwashing+mask R0 reduction, future vaccination, etc.