The microblog: 2020.03.30 00:59:19

2020.03.30 00:59:19 (1244398762446876672) from Daniel J. Bernstein, replying to "Halvar Flake (@halvarflake)" (1243931106690416642): is newer version of script. Documentation is now split off into Sections 2 and 3 of accompanying paper: Have started thinking a bit about the design of a domain-specific language to improve reviewability of computations like this.

2020.03.30 01:08:19 (1244401027249360896) from Daniel J. Bernstein:

Regarding the initial question, China's reported "severe cases" peaked 25 days after lockdown: Maybe this means the same as what we'd call ICU occupation. Hospitals obviously have strong incentives to know and report their ICU occupation at each moment.


2020.03.28 14:29:40 (1243893015929905152) from "Stefano Zanero (@raistolo)", replying to "Stefano Zanero (@raistolo)" (1243892308770250753):

(If you wish to play there’s a few reasonable base SEIR models in Simulink’s libraries)

2020.03.28 14:47:33 (1243897518796275712) from "Halvar Flake (@halvarflake)", replying to "Stefano Zanero (@raistolo)" (1243893015929905152):

Djb published a very readable py implementation a few days ago (while trying to repro a paper)

2020.03.28 15:22:09 (1243906223562543105) from "0xdecafbad (@0x0dada)", replying to "Halvar Flake (@halvarflake)" (1243897518796275712):

This one, part of his extended thread critiquing Kissler's paper?:

2020.03.28 17:01:01 (1243931106690416642) from "Halvar Flake (@halvarflake)", replying to "0xdecafbad (@0x0dada)" (1243906223562543105):