The microblog: 2020.04.05 21:38:34

2020.04.05 21:38:34 (1246884957122781184) from Daniel J. Bernstein, replying to "Adam Langley (@agl__)" (1246847906369265664):

All of the data points in that article are consistent with the theory that Europe's lockdowns brought R far below 1, and with the theory that they didn't! Anyone claiming confidence one way or the other at this point is simply reporting preconceived notions (Bayesian priors).


2020.04.05 19:11:20 (1246847905475866624) from "Adam Langley (@agl__)":

Today's vacillations: we've brought time at huge cost. But, maybe ⅔s of patients who need ventilators die, even if they get them ( But, even if not articulated, many countries now appear to be trying Hammer & Dance ( (1/3)

2020.04.05 19:11:20 (1246847906369265664) from "Adam Langley (@agl__)", replying to "Adam Langley (@agl__)" (1246847905475866624):

But, lockdowns in European countries have not brought estimated R0 below 1 ( But, those numbers are early, they could get better, and mass testing was supposed to be part of the hammer too. (2/3)