2020.05.07 21:54:28 (1258485370431303680) from Daniel J. Bernstein, replying to "Melon Sucks (@BlauBaron)" (1258478155783901185):
Sure, it's possible that WHO etc. have been deliberately spreading false information to control resources. See @zeynep's brilliantly subversive piece https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/17/opinion/coronavirus-face-masks.html from March. But there are other possibilities that I think are even _more_ worrisome.
2020.05.07 22:05:17 (1258488091301437441) from Daniel J. Bernstein:
The analysis in https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/03/why-was-it-so-hard-to-raise-the-alarm-on-coronavirus.html persuasively attributes much broader COVID-19 failures to confirmation bias and other well-known cognitive biases. Is it hard to imagine that the recommendations from public-health organizations are driven primarily by confirmation bias?
2020.05.07 22:20:30 (1258491921489473538) from Daniel J. Bernstein:
Scenario 1: A shortage of masks led WHO to issue a one-time pack of lies, thinking this would be for the greater good. Scenario 2: Confirmation bias led WHO to fool itself regarding asymptomatic spread, masks, etc. Which of these is more likely? Which of these is more worrisome?