The microblog: 2020.12.09 18:50:44

2020.12.09 18:50:44 (1336730011571654657) from Daniel J. Bernstein, replying to "Peter Todd (@peterktodd)" (1336715178667290626):

Hmmm, not sure what the word "many" is doing here. For me what's important is that we've seen country after country successfully following the same eradication strategy: set the target at 0 and use masks, closures, testing, tracing, quarantines, etc. until the target is reached.

2020.12.09 18:59:45 (1336732281533132800) from Daniel J. Bernstein:

The U.S. has repeatedly demonstrated the ability to reduce cases (and hospital strain and deaths). However, the measures taken are half-hearted and released too soon, so cases go back up again. The core problem is that the feedback system isn't setting zero cases as the target.


2020.12.09 17:38:18 (1336711784137334784) from Daniel J. Bernstein, replying to "Peter Todd (@peterktodd)" (1336703775269150720):

Hawaii is an island state with good weather, has about 6% the population of Australia, and has had 600 cases in the past week. How exactly is Hawaii "doing much more than Australia"? Doesn't Hawaii allow anyone to take a NAAT test, fly to Hawaii 3 days later, and skip quarantine?

2020.12.09 17:48:34 (1336714364531957760) from "Peter Todd (@peterktodd)":

Hmm? I never said anything about Hawaii; saying they're not doing much doesn't refute my statement that "Lots of places are doing much more than Australia and failing." Take Slovenia: successfully stopped it. Yet deaths are still rising with very strict lockdown.

2020.12.09 17:50:19 (1336714806619852800) from "Peter Todd (@peterktodd)", replying to "Peter Todd (@peterktodd)" (1336714364531957760):

Local conditions and luck matter a lot. Slovenia's lockdown is failing to stop case growth, probably because it's now winter, and they have no choice but to allow a significant % of the population to keep working, least the economy straight up collapse.

2020.12.09 17:51:48 (1336715178667290626) from "Peter Todd (@peterktodd)", replying to "Peter Todd (@peterktodd)" (1336714806619852800):

Point is, your statement that "One country after another has successfully eradicated COVID-19 cases; the U.S. reacts with ignorance and denial." presents it as though there is a clear way to eradicate COIVD-19 that many countries have followed successfully. That's just not true.