The microblog: 2020.12.14 13:33:08

2020.12.14 13:33:08 (1338462022120263681) from Daniel J. Bernstein, replying to "Peter Todd (@peterktodd)" (1337835893005164546):

I also listed Thailand, which last I checked isn't an island, but let's play along and focus on islands. In your human-choices-don't-matter model of COVID-19's island spread, how exactly do you explain Hawaii doing so much worse than Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, and Taiwan?


2020.12.12 03:53:06 (1337591278943481858) from "Peter Todd (@peterktodd)", replying to "Peter Todd (@peterktodd)" (1337590828194287618):

Quite simply, what countries do you think constitute examples of countries that have eliminated COVID-19?

2020.12.12 07:38:44 (1337648060898295812) from Daniel J. Bernstein, replying to "Peter Todd (@peterktodd)" (1337591278943481858):

You mean, beyond the Australian example that I mentioned, and other examples leaping out from the page that I cited such as New Zealand, Singapore, and Thailand? The one that I'd recommend studying is Taiwan, where the March list of action items is simply amazing to read through.

2020.12.12 07:44:56 (1337649621804322816) from Daniel J. Bernstein:

Perhaps some people looking at the graphs will say "Taiwan has had _hundreds_ of cases in the past six months! That's not eradication!" Travelers arriving in Taiwan are quarantined for two weeks, and of course sometimes turn out to be positive, which is counted as a Taiwan case.

2020.12.12 20:05:07 (1337835893005164546) from "Peter Todd (@peterktodd)":

So let's look at your list: Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, and Taiwan. Every single one is an island with very different - or even opposite - weather patterns to the US and Europe. Cold and flu season _is_ a season for a reason.