2020.12.16 14:18:22 (1339198184657063938) from Daniel J. Bernstein, replying to "Peter Todd (@peterktodd)" (1339103912155082752):
Thailand is a country of 70 million people with only 60 COVID-19 deaths, almost entirely in March-May. They aren't flying blind: 1000 sensibly deployed tests per day. The lockdown was done in several weeks, while many other helpful actions continued to limit spread of the virus.
2020.12.09 17:38:18 (1336711784137334784) from Daniel J. Bernstein, replying to "Peter Todd (@peterktodd)" (1336703775269150720):
Hawaii is an island state with good weather, has about 6% the population of Australia, and has had 600 cases in the past week. How exactly is Hawaii "doing much more than Australia"? Doesn't Hawaii allow anyone to take a NAAT test, fly to Hawaii 3 days later, and skip quarantine?
2020.12.09 17:48:34 (1336714364531957760) from "Peter Todd (@peterktodd)":
Hmm? I never said anything about Hawaii; saying they're not doing much doesn't refute my statement that "Lots of places are doing much more than Australia and failing." Take Slovenia: successfully stopped it. Yet deaths are still rising with very strict lockdown.
2020.12.12 20:05:07 (1337835893005164546) from "Peter Todd (@peterktodd)":
So let's look at your list: Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, and Taiwan. Every single one is an island with very different - or even opposite - weather patterns to the US and Europe. Cold and flu season _is_ a season for a reason.
2020.12.14 13:33:08 (1338462022120263681) from Daniel J. Bernstein, replying to "Peter Todd (@peterktodd)" (1337835893005164546):
I also listed Thailand, which last I checked isn't an island, but let's play along and focus on islands. In your human-choices-don't-matter model of COVID-19's island spread, how exactly do you explain Hawaii doing so much worse than Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, and Taiwan?
2020.12.16 07:54:23 (1339101550040535040) from "Peter Todd (@peterktodd)":
> human-choices-don't-matter model Um, what? I already made that point re: Hawaii up thread. Why are you repeating that strawman argument? https://twitter.com/peterktodd/status/1336714364531957760
2020.12.16 08:03:46 (1339103912155082752) from "Peter Todd (@peterktodd)", replying to "Peter Todd (@peterktodd)" (1339101550040535040):
Why do you think Thailand has been successful? They're not doing much testing, and antibody surveillance in April to June found as high as 11% prevalence among hospital staff: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.24.20139188v3 That's not a sign of a successful lockdown...