The microblog: 2020.12.16 14:42:53

2020.12.16 14:42:53 (1339204353010253825) from Daniel J. Bernstein, replying to "Peter Todd (@peterktodd)" (1339118304355635201):

Smallpox was a highly contagious respiratory disease, everywhere on the globe. It was eradicated through testing, tracing, quarantines, and vaccines. As for COVID-19, the countries that eradicated it pre-vaccine have thriving economies now and are re-opening travel to each other.


2020.12.16 08:07:32 (1339104857886760962) from "Peter Todd (@peterktodd)":

Ok, so you acknowledge that Europe isn't an example of eradication. Leaving a tiny handful of islands, with warm weather. So what do expect eradication to accomplish? Melbourne needed 112 days of _very_ strict lockdown, to the point where the economy couldn't function by itself.

2020.12.16 08:09:05 (1339105251245297664) from "Peter Todd (@peterktodd)", replying to "Peter Todd (@peterktodd)" (1339104857886760962):

There's limits to how much, and how long, you can do lockdown you know. The economy eventually collapses. That's not some theoretical thing either: the ability to provide essential goods and services breaks down. Meanwhile, total eradication of COVID-19 is definitely impossible.

2020.12.16 08:11:04 (1339105747209228288) from "Peter Todd (@peterktodd)", replying to "Peter Todd (@peterktodd)" (1339105251245297664):

So achieving eradication results in your borders being effectively closed indefinitely, for fear of reintroducing it. Why do you expect countries in Europe to think that goal is worth it, when it's never been achieved in any previous pandemic in history?

2020.12.16 09:00:58 (1339118304355635201) from "Peter Todd (@peterktodd)", replying to "Peter Todd (@peterktodd)" (1339105747209228288):

(specifically, a highly contagious respiratory pandemic - Ebola and SARS don't count, due to being much less contagious, so much so in the case of Ebola that it wasn't even a pandemic)