2020.12.17 05:35:25 (1339428966831071233) from Daniel J. Bernstein, replying to "Peter Todd (@peterktodd)" (1339341871546503169):
You keep focusing on lockdowns, but most countries setting the goal at eradication have limited the use of lockdowns and have deployed a large toolbox of better-bang-for-the-buck techniques to successfully keep R down. For Thailand's testing strategy, see https://ddc.moph.go.th/viralpneumonia/eng/file/guidelines/g_surveillance_150520.pdf.
2020.12.17 06:07:36 (1339437063603511298) from Daniel J. Bernstein:
For typical American (and Canadian and so on) readers it's educational to study this document, which spells out tons of sensible things that were already in Thailand's testing strategy early in 2020, and it's embarrassing to see that the U.S. couldn't manage most of these things.
2020.12.16 07:54:23 (1339101550040535040) from "Peter Todd (@peterktodd)":
> human-choices-don't-matter model Um, what? I already made that point re: Hawaii up thread. Why are you repeating that strawman argument? https://twitter.com/peterktodd/status/1336714364531957760
2020.12.16 08:03:46 (1339103912155082752) from "Peter Todd (@peterktodd)", replying to "Peter Todd (@peterktodd)" (1339101550040535040):
Why do you think Thailand has been successful? They're not doing much testing, and antibody surveillance in April to June found as high as 11% prevalence among hospital staff: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.24.20139188v3 That's not a sign of a successful lockdown...
2020.12.16 14:18:22 (1339198184657063938) from Daniel J. Bernstein, replying to "Peter Todd (@peterktodd)" (1339103912155082752):
Thailand is a country of 70 million people with only 60 COVID-19 deaths, almost entirely in March-May. They aren't flying blind: 1000 sensibly deployed tests per day. The lockdown was done in several weeks, while many other helpful actions continued to limit spread of the virus.
2020.12.16 23:49:20 (1339341871546503169) from "Peter Todd (@peterktodd)":
So basically you think a good example of successful lockdown is a very warm, poor, country that is obviously not doing anywhere near as much COVID-19 surveillance as necessary to reliably catch all cases... Where is your evidence that those tests are "sensibly deployed"?