The microblog: 2020.12.18 17:34:55

2020.12.18 17:34:55 (1339972421529423872) from Daniel J. Bernstein, replying to "Peter Todd (@peterktodd)" (1339750420814684160):

The study reported 5% (minus false positives) IgM seroprevalence _in Thai hospitals_ in April/May/June. This doesn't contradict the whole-population statistics; it simply illustrates one of the reasons that health-care workers around the world are a high priority for vaccination.


2020.12.17 06:07:36 (1339437063603511298) from Daniel J. Bernstein:

For typical American (and Canadian and so on) readers it's educational to study this document, which spells out tons of sensible things that were already in Thailand's testing strategy early in 2020, and it's embarrassing to see that the U.S. couldn't manage most of these things.

2020.12.18 02:49:07 (1339749503071608832) from "Peter Todd (@peterktodd)":

Huh? Canada (and many other countries) were doing those things. That's just basic "test and trace". It's just not effective enough to catch close enough to 100% of cases to eliminate COVID-19. Canada's tracing infrastructure became overwhelmed and they gave up.

2020.12.18 02:51:05 (1339749998465060867) from "Peter Todd (@peterktodd)", replying to "Peter Todd (@peterktodd)" (1339749503071608832):

The UK has spent $22 billion on test and trace. In UK conditions, it didn't work. Sorry, but not all countries are equally susceptible. We know for sure weather is a factor. Levels of pre-existing immunity are also significant, and vary a lot.

2020.12.18 02:52:46 (1339750420814684160) from "Peter Todd (@peterktodd)", replying to "Peter Todd (@peterktodd)" (1339749998465060867):

And the fact is, that antibody testing found evidence of *much* higher prevalence than reported clearly indicates that Thailand's "test and trace" efforts were *not* as effective as you seem to think they were.