2020.12.18 18:27:12 (1339985578910085120) from Daniel J. Bernstein, replying to "Peter Todd (@peterktodd)" (1339749998465060867):
Some T-cell cross-reactivity exists, but calling this "immunity" is deceptive; see https://www.nature.com/articles/s41577-020-00460-4. The UK's failure to eradicate COVID is the result of human choices; see, e.g., https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/14/opinion/coronavirus-europe-vacation.html. Yes, humans are influenced by the weather, and use it as an excuse.
2020.12.17 05:35:25 (1339428966831071233) from Daniel J. Bernstein, replying to "Peter Todd (@peterktodd)" (1339341871546503169):
You keep focusing on lockdowns, but most countries setting the goal at eradication have limited the use of lockdowns and have deployed a large toolbox of better-bang-for-the-buck techniques to successfully keep R down. For Thailand's testing strategy, see https://ddc.moph.go.th/viralpneumonia/eng/file/guidelines/g_surveillance_150520.pdf.
2020.12.17 06:07:36 (1339437063603511298) from Daniel J. Bernstein:
For typical American (and Canadian and so on) readers it's educational to study this document, which spells out tons of sensible things that were already in Thailand's testing strategy early in 2020, and it's embarrassing to see that the U.S. couldn't manage most of these things.
2020.12.18 02:49:07 (1339749503071608832) from "Peter Todd (@peterktodd)":
Huh? Canada (and many other countries) were doing those things. That's just basic "test and trace". It's just not effective enough to catch close enough to 100% of cases to eliminate COVID-19. Canada's tracing infrastructure became overwhelmed and they gave up.
2020.12.18 02:51:05 (1339749998465060867) from "Peter Todd (@peterktodd)", replying to "Peter Todd (@peterktodd)" (1339749503071608832):
The UK has spent $22 billion on test and trace. In UK conditions, it didn't work. Sorry, but not all countries are equally susceptible. We know for sure weather is a factor. Levels of pre-existing immunity are also significant, and vary a lot.