The microblog: 2022.05.01 20:44:11

2022.05.01 20:44:11 (1520836496609071104) from Daniel J. Bernstein:

Plotted the Shanghai case numbers (total symptomatic+asymptomatic) extracted from Found it somewhat annoying to automate this extraction: Chinese is ok, frivolous JS is ok, but kept getting 412 (even with pyppeteer), plus had to parse semi-free-form text.

2022.05.01 21:00:22 (1520840571593494528) from Daniel J. Bernstein:

Google's plot of Shanghai cases ( does some of the same thing but covers only symptomatic cases. What's most useful about the Shanghai data is the direct evidence from mass testing; PCR tests don't measure the split of cases into symptomatic+asymptomatic.

2022.05.01 21:06:12 (1520842038790410240) from Daniel J. Bernstein:

There's another part of the reports saying that N of the symptomatic cases were previously asymptomatic; these should be taken away from the totals, but I haven't scripted this yet. N is generally in the ballpark of 1000, which is now a noticeable fraction of the Shanghai cases.


2022.04.09 20:46:58 (1512864666413723649) from Daniel J. Bernstein:

I understand the reports of big costs (economic, psychological, human, et al.) of China's anti-COVID actions in Shanghai, but I'm puzzled to see confident declarations that the actions are ineffective. Why is it clear that daily cases won't be much lower by the end of this month?