The microblog: 2022.05.06 22:57:49

2022.05.06 22:57:49 (1522682067267440641) from Daniel J. Bernstein:

Shanghai's actions are now chopping Omicron BA.2 infections in half every week. Suppose the goal is instead set at reducing infections by 20% per week; is it hard to imagine that this loosening would allow quarantine at home, normal food deliveries, etc.? (And no killing pets!)

2022.05.06 23:53:01 (1522695959896936450) from Daniel J. Bernstein:

It's important to be able to quantify how different factors affect spread (as @tomaspueyo pointed out long ago). Surely limiting contact between people helps, but how much? How much spread comes from restaurants doing only deliveries? How does home quarantine compare to central?

2022.05.07 01:20:28 (1522717964746719232) from Daniel J. Bernstein:

Pre-lockdown, with whatever baseline impact from masks + Chinese vaccines, Shanghai cases were growing ~4x/week, so overall the lockdown reduced spread by ~8x/week (probably between 2x and 3x per serial interval). This came from several factors, so R<1 didn't require all factors.

2022.05.07 01:32:38 (1522721025888161793) from Daniel J. Bernstein:

Meanwhile most Americans seem to think that Omicron is a superbug that leaps from one building to another without human assistance and wasn't stopped by Shanghai's lockdowns. People don't ask "What's the most tolerable way to stop Omicron's spread?" if they think it's impossible.